【REGINA PSAKI Dante's Redeemed Eroticism пдф】

UPDATE: Oct. 5,REGINA PSAKI Dante's Redeemed Eroticism пдф 2016, 8:26 a.m. EDT Hurricane track forecasts issued Wednesday morning now show that Hurricane Matthew may parallel the Florida coastline from near West Palm Beach to Jacksonville, with a small shift to the left or right of this track making a huge difference in terms of impacts. This forecast makes understanding the meaning of the "cone of uncertainty" even more crucial for emergency officials and the public at large.

---

As Hurricane Matthew churns from Haiti toward Cuba and the Bahamas, millions along the Southeast U.S. coast are preparing for the storm.

As of midday Tuesday, the entire East Coast from Miami to Boston was within the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) "cone of uncertainty" storm track forecast. With supermarket shelves already going bare in Florida, many are basing crucial storm decisions, such as whether to stay near the shore or head inland, in large part on forecast graphics like the cone of uncertainty map.

---

You May Also Like

---

---

SEE ALSO: This is what astronauts saw from 250 miles above Category 4 Hurricane Matthew

Forecasters at the NHC produce this map multiple times each day based on new information from computer models, weather observations and other sources.

The tool is valuable. But published, peer-reviewed research, along with an informal poll of Mashablenewsroom colleagues, indicates that it's unlikely that most people truly understand what the cone of uncertainty graphic actually shows.

For example: Many people assume that the boundaries of the cone show the limits of where this particular storm could go.

That's false.

In addition, one might think that as long as people live away from the centerline in the graphic, which is the predicted storm track pertaining to where the storm's center will go, then they won't experience significant affects of the storm. That, too, is false.

Original image has been replaced. Credit: Mashable

Also, one might perceive that if they are located close to the edge of the cone, they are at less risk of seeing hurricane impacts than if they are located closer to the center. That, too, is not necessarily the case.

Here's what the cone of uncertainty graphic actually means. Now stay with me for a second, because it's kind of technical, but I'll unpack it for you, I promise.

First, there's the centerline. The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the storm, in this case, Hurricane Matthew. The black line and dots along it show the forecast track from the National Hurricane Center at the time intervals indicated. The letter inside the dot shows the forecast intensity at that time. The letter "m" indicates a major hurricane of Category 3 or greater, whereas an "H" indicates a weaker hurricane of Category 1 or 2 intensity.

Mashable Light Speed Want more out-of-this world tech, space and science stories? Sign up for Mashable's weekly Light Speed newsletter. By clicking Sign Me Up, you confirm you are 16+ and agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy. Thanks for signing up!

The forecast cone indicates forecast uncertainty, but here's the tricky part: It does not show the uncertainty for Hurricane Matthew in particular. Instead, the solid white and stippled white areas show track forecast uncertainties for days 1 through 5 of the forecast, based only on historical data.

Original image has been replaced. Credit: Mashable

Here's how the NHC describes the uncertainty aspect of the cone:

"Historical data indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time."

In other words, about one-third of the time, the center of the storm, and the most intense winds and storm surge impacts associated with it, will veer outside of the cone.

In fact, many computer model projections of Hurricane Matthew currently veer to the left or right of the NHC's consensus-based line within the cone.

The NHC further describes the cone's uncertainty estimates: "To form the cone, a set of imaginary circles [is] placed along the forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions, where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the previous five years' official forecast errors. The cone is then formed by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles."

Peer-reviewed scientific studies have shown that many people fixate on the centerline and assume that if they are located away from it, they are not going to be severely affected by the storm. A 2007 study, published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, for example, found widespread confusion about the "cone of uncertainty."

Original image has been replaced. Credit: Mashable

Studies published since have also shown that with tornado warnings, which are now issued in polygon shapes to avoid warning large counties, people tend to think they are safe as long as they are not in the center of the polygon, even though anywhere in the warned area is equally at risk.

This isn't the case, since tropical storms and hurricanes aren't a point on a map. Instead, they're the strongest storms on Earth, with a diameter of strong winds and high waves that can stretch for hundreds of miles.

Helpfully, the NHC provides probability-based graphics showing how likely it is that specific points on a map will see tropical storm-force or hurricane force winds from Hurricane Matthew.

This Tweet is currently unavailable. It might be loading or has been removed.

Here are a few key things to keep in mind with this tricky forecast graphic and while weighing other critical weather information as this storm creeps closer to the U.S.

Evacuation orders may also be issued starting today. Please watch your local news.

— Rick Scott (@FLGovScott) October 4, 2016

It's a good idea to pick a reliable, local source of weather information and stick with that source, rather than shopping around for the message you want to hear. The official source for watches and warnings, as well as storm intensity updates, is the National Hurricane Center, but local media is invaluable in these events.

Use Twitter and other social media as a stream of raw intelligence on what the storm may be doing and how people are experiencing it on the ground, but remember that it is raw, not filtered and condensed. Therefore, some of the information may be confusing or inaccurate.

And lastly, be sure to prepare for this hurricane and every other major storm to come. The worst that happens is you have extra water and food supplies to come in handy during a no-show-hurricane party.